A young couple looking at houses for sale in an American neighborhood.
The U.S. housing market is showing signs of opening up for first-time homebuyers, with improved affordability and increased inventory in key regions. A new Zillow analysis identifies the top markets where first-time buyers will have the best shot at homeownership by 2026.
Top Markets for First-Time Homebuyers in 2026:
- Jacksonville, Florida
- Birmingham, Alabama
- San Antonio, Texas
- Atlanta, Georgia
- Houston, Texas
- St. Louis, Missouri
- Detroit, Michigan
- Raleigh, North Carolina
- Baltimore, Maryland
- Louisville, Kentucky
Zillow’s rankings consider factors like rent burden, affordable listings, inventory relative to renters, and the concentration of buyers in their prime homebuying years.
Key Highlights:
- Jacksonville: Leads with rent consuming 23.1% of income and nearly 47.8% affordable listings.
- Birmingham: Stands out with over 55.6% affordable homes and 6.2 listings per 100 renters.
- San Antonio: Offers a balanced entry point with a 20.2% rent burden and 47.4% affordable listings.
- Atlanta: Features 45.2% affordable listings and moderate competition.
- Houston: Has around 40.2% affordability, supported by a large population of prime homebuying-age individuals.
- St. Louis: Affordability is a key strength, with 67.7% of listings within reach for first-time buyers.
- Detroit: Nearly 64.8% of homes are affordable, combined with manageable competition.
- Raleigh: Benefits from a low rent burden of 18.4%, with about 48% of listings remaining affordable.
- Baltimore: Approximately 61.8% of homes are affordable, but inventory is tighter at three listings per 100 renters.
- Louisville: Rounds out the top ten, with 54.1% of listings considered affordable and a steady supply of homes.
Despite elevated mortgage rates and housing inventory being about 20% below pre-pandemic levels, conditions have improved. More homes are available, and affordability has modestly increased, according to Zillow.
“First-time buyers are finally seeing some light at the end of the tunnel,” said Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow. “Affordability is still a challenge, but rising incomes, stabilizing prices, and improving inventory are creating real opportunities in parts of the country.”
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