Fears that artificial intelligence will decimate the job market are understandable, but they could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, according to Nobel laureate economist Robert Shiller.
Shiller, who shared the 2013 Nobel Prize in economics, argued in a recent New York Times essay that anxieties surrounding technological unemployment are not new. He pointed to historical precedents, such as ancient Greek concerns about automation and the 19th-century Luddite movement, where workers destroyed machinery they feared would displace them.
Current sentiment reflects a similar unease. A Quinnipiac poll found 70% of Americans believe AI will reduce job numbers, and a Pew Research survey indicated only 16% expect AI to have a positive societal impact in the next two decades. Shiller noted, “Our brains are wired to respond to stories. Narratives floating in a population can affect individuals’ economic decisions.” He worries that when millions make decisions based on negative expectations, fear can manifest into reality.
While acknowledging that AI could indeed lower employment, Shiller differentiates himself by focusing on the psychological impact of the fear itself. He suggests that much of the negative media coverage, coupled with dire predictions from tech leaders like Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei (who speculated AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs within five years), exacerbates this fear.
“While the job market has slowed for a host of reasons, there are reports that fear of an AI apocalypse is worsening the freeze and contributing to record lows in consumer sentiment,” Shiller wrote. He urged tech leaders to consider the broader economic consequences of promoting such doomsday scenarios, suggesting it could lead to a recession that would ultimately harm their own businesses.
“Perhaps the best we can do is to appeal directly to the leaders of Silicon Valley who have been promoting these negative narratives with such vigor,” Shiller concluded. “Surely the resulting media attention highlighting how dangerously powerful your AI model is may help you sell more wares, but it may be far harder to do so in a period of recession. Try not to forget the critical lessons taught by our past.”
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