As the potential for renewed conflict looms, Iran is reportedly rearming, raising concerns about a possible Israeli strike. Recent reports suggest that Tehran is replenishing its missile stocks, sparking fears of a new war in the region. This comes as negotiations with the United States remain uncertain, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may seek to target Iran directly.
Chinese Chemicals Fueling Iranian Missiles
According to a report from CNN, citing European intelligence sources, shipments of chemicals crucial for missile production have been arriving in Iran from China. These shipments include sodium perchlorate, a key component in solid rocket fuel for Iran’s medium-range missiles. The report indicates that approximately 2,000 tons of this chemical, purchased from Chinese suppliers, have reached Bandar Abbas port since late September.
Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, anticipates further shipments. Iran needs substantial quantities of sodium perchlorate to replace missiles used in previous conflicts and to boost its production capacity. This influx of materials underscores Iran’s military preparations amidst increasing tensions with the West, particularly Israel.
Escalating Tensions and the Specter of War
The reported arms buildup coincides with heightened tensions between Iran and the West, especially with Israel, even as behind-the-scenes negotiations continue between the U.S. and Iran. Political science and international law professor Ali Fadlallah highlights the rising tensions, exacerbated by the European troika (Britain, Germany, and France) and the activation of the snapback mechanism, which has led to more sanctions.
Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, views Iran’s rearmament as a logical response to the potential for an Israeli strike. He notes that Iran seems to believe that the best defense is a strong offense, focusing on increasing its ballistic missile production. Fadlallah adds that Iran is under pressure from sanctions, lacks air force capabilities, and is thus naturally inclined to develop its missile arsenal.
An Israeli Pretext for War?
There are concerns that the intelligence leak could be a precursor to an Israeli attack on Iran. The United States and Israel have employed similar strategies in the past, leaking reports about missile or nuclear activities to justify preemptive strikes. This pattern was observed before the 12-day war, when the International Atomic Energy Agency issued a statement about Iran’s nuclear progress. Fadlallah cautions that the accuracy of the European sources’ information cannot be definitively confirmed, but the report aligns with the ongoing pressure on Iran.
The Ongoing Arms Race in the Middle East
The arms race between Israel and Iran continues, with decision-makers in Tel Aviv, particularly in Netanyahu’s office, waiting for an opportune moment to launch a new war against Iran. However, the decision to go to war hinges on the ongoing U.S.-Iranian negotiations.
In conclusion, the situation remains volatile, with both sides preparing for potential conflict. The international community is closely watching the developments, as the implications of any escalation could be far-reaching.
Source: Annahar
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