Israel’s Claims on Hezbollah’s Military Buildup: Fact or Exaggeration?
In recent times, the Israeli press has been focusing on the alleged efforts of Hezbollah to rebuild its military capabilities in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley. These reports suggest that Hezbollah has been involved in smuggling weapons from Syria, even after nine months following the departure of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. This narrative raises critical questions about the current state of affairs and the potential for escalated conflict.
Israeli Concerns and Accusations
The issue has gained significant attention, with figures like the former U.S. envoy Morgan Ortagus discussing it with Lebanese officials, including President Joseph Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri, and Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam. These discussions were informed by information and reports received from Tel Aviv. Benjamin Netanyahu and his political and military team have repeatedly highlighted this issue, using it to justify ongoing military operations. One notable instance was the operation in Blida (Marjayoun), where Israel claimed that Hezbollah had converted the municipal council into a base of operations near Israeli military sites and settlements.
Hezbollah’s Stance and Operational Realities
Hezbollah, however, has not commented on its military readiness, choosing to adhere to its established resistance rhetoric. Multiple sources suggest that the military wing of Hezbollah has not been openly active in southern Lebanon, particularly in the Southern Litani region, where security measures are strictly enforced. Despite this, Israeli drones have targeted Hezbollah members, including civilian officials. One such instance was the killing of Abd al-Sayyed in Naqoura. However, the practicalities of arms transport, especially in southern Lebanon, are fraught with challenges due to the constant presence of Israeli drones.
Arms Smuggling and Accusations
The Israelis have gone as far as requesting, through UNIFIL, the names of car owners traveling to their border villages for the olive harvest. They accuse Hezbollah of smuggling weapons from Syria, citing the killing of Ali Hussein al-Moussawi in Nabi Sheet last week, whom they claim was an active member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. A Lebanese military expert suggests that confirming Hezbollah’s arms supply from Syria is difficult, and if true, Israel would likely target these shipments. Moreover, they point out that the security authorities, led by President Ahmad al-Share, would not facilitate such operations.
Conclusion
While some analysts suggest that Hezbollah may still be able to smuggle weapons from Syria, possibly through old, undiscovered caches or with the cooperation of Syrian security officers, the situation remains complex. The political and security implications of these claims are significant, and the truth likely lies somewhere between the narratives presented by both sides. It is crucial to approach these claims with caution and a critical eye, considering the potential for exaggeration and the ongoing tensions in the region.
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