In a recent analysis, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) forecasts a 3% rise in India’s exports, reaching ₹850 billion during the current fiscal year. This projection comes amidst evolving global trade dynamics, including the implementation of new climate-linked trade barriers.
The report highlights that while goods exports may experience stagnation, the services sector is expected to drive overall export growth. This divergence underscores the shifting landscape of international trade and the increasing importance of the services industry.
One of the key factors influencing the trade environment is the introduction of new trade barriers. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is cited as an example. Such measures are designed to address climate change but also pose new challenges for exporters. These barriers could potentially impact the competitiveness of Indian goods in the global market.
GTRI emphasizes the need for strategic interventions to bolster export performance. The organization recommends that the government review existing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). This strategic review aims to identify opportunities to enhance market access and mitigate the negative effects of emerging trade barriers.
Key Takeaways:
- Exports Outlook: GTRI predicts a 3% growth in exports to ₹850 billion for the current fiscal year.
- Goods vs. Services: Goods exports may remain flat, but services exports are expected to drive growth.
- Trade Barriers: New barriers like the EU’s CBAM are impacting trade dynamics.
- Policy Recommendation: GTRI urges a review of Free Trade Agreements to boost exports.
The analysis by GTRI provides a timely assessment of India’s export prospects, offering valuable insights for policymakers and businesses navigating the complexities of global trade. The focus on both challenges and opportunities underscores the need for proactive strategies to ensure sustained export growth in the face of evolving global conditions.
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