Jamie Dimon points to a screen showing economic forecasts impacted by global conflicts.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is sounding the alarm. In his annual letter to shareholders, Dimon warns that the war in Iran could trigger persistent inflation and higher interest rates than markets anticipate. The letter, released alongside JPMorgan’s 2025 annual report, highlights potential energy shocks and global supply chain disruptions stemming from the conflict.
“Now, because of the war in Iran, we additionally face the potential for significant ongoing oil and commodity price shocks, along with the reshaping of global supply chains, which may lead to stickier inflation and ultimately higher interest rates than markets currently expect,” Dimon wrote.
Dimon identifies geopolitical tensions, including the Iran war and Russia’s war in Ukraine, as primary risks to financial markets. These conflicts impact nations and economies indirectly involved, particularly those reliant on imported energy. Disruptions extend beyond energy to commodities like fertilizer and helium, affecting shipbuilding, food production, and farming.
According to Dimon, a confluence of negative events could trigger a recession with high credit losses, market volatility, and elevated unemployment. He also notes the possibility of stagflation, where inflationary forces outweigh deflationary ones.
“The skunk at the garden party – and it could happen in 2026 – would be inflation slowly going up, as opposed to slowly going down,” Dimon said. “This alone could cause interest rates to rise and asset prices to drop. Interest rates are like gravity to almost all asset prices. And falling asset prices at one point can change sentiment rapidly and cause a flight to cash.”
Dimon emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding the Iran war’s outcome and its impact on regional power dynamics. He criticizes the Iranian regime’s support for terrorism and repression of its own people.
“Time will tell whether the current war in Iran achieves our short-term and long-term objectives in the region and at what cost. We should not turn a blind eye to the role the current regime in Iran has played in fostering terrorism and killing thousands of people, including Americans and many of its own citizens, over many years,” he said.
Dimon concludes by underscoring the urgent need to address the threat posed by Iran, particularly regarding nuclear proliferation, which he considers the gravest threat to mankind.
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