Gas pump with rising prices, oil rigs, and geopolitical flags.
The oil market has seen prices surge by over 40% since the onset of the Iran conflict, sending ripples through global energy markets. This increase has sparked concerns that U.S. drivers may soon face higher gasoline prices.
Experts suggest that consumers haven’t fully absorbed the impact of rising crude costs, which typically take weeks to translate into retail gasoline prices. According to Phil Flynn, a FOX Business contributor and senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, “More than likely there is more to come, because there’s usually a lag between crude prices and what consumers pay at the pump.” Michael Mische, a supply chain expert at the University of Southern California, echoed this sentiment, noting, “There’s more still to come… There is a lag, and prices will continue to work their way through the system.”
West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $99.64 a barrel on Friday, maintaining elevated levels after recent volatility linked to the conflict. Despite being on track for its first weekly decline in over a month, prices remain significantly higher than pre-conflict levels. This rally is attributed to supply disruptions from U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, which have reportedly removed 10 to 11 million barrels per day from global markets.
Geopolitical tensions continue to influence the market. The U.S. has extended the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for global oil shipments, while considering further military actions. Flynn noted, “Even with this supply shock, the increase has been relatively orderly—and it could have been much worse.” Mische added that strong domestic production has helped mitigate the impact.
Consumers are already seeing gasoline prices rise, with the national average at approximately $3.98 per gallon, according to AAA—up 6 cents from a week ago and nearly $1 higher than a month ago. GasBuddy data indicates a similar trend. Analysts anticipate continued upward pressure on prices in the coming weeks, reflecting earlier gains in oil.
Seasonal factors, such as the transition to more expensive summer gasoline blends, are also playing a role. These blends increase refining costs, potentially keeping pump prices high even if crude oil prices stabilize. Mische commented, “Prices go up like rockets, and they come down like a feather.”
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