Trump’s Gaza Plan Faces Uncertainty Amidst Eroding Ceasefire
The ceasefire agreement in Gaza is teetering on the brink, undermined by daily attacks on Palestinians across the region. These actions, coupled with delays in retrieving the bodies of Israeli prisoners, are casting a shadow over the path forward. The situation puts the American plan, spearheaded by former President Donald Trump, at a critical juncture.
Escalating Tensions and Breaches of the Ceasefire
Since the extensive strikes on October 28th, which resulted in the loss of 100 Palestinian lives, the attacks against Palestinians have persisted. These actions, justified as a response to a military operation in Rafah that claimed the life of an Israeli soldier, are further complicated by the delayed recovery of Israeli prisoners’ bodies. While 17 bodies have been recovered out of 28, the recent discovery that three bodies handed over by Hamas did not belong to Israelis led to more Israeli airstrikes, particularly around Khan Yunis. Israel has also vowed further actions, accusing Hamas of deliberately delaying the return of bodies.
Humanitarian Crisis and the American Plan
Adding to the instability, Israel has imposed new restrictions on humanitarian aid, as highlighted in United Nations reports that reveal a significant shortfall in meeting the needs of Gaza’s 2.1 million residents. The issues surrounding the bodies are not the only threat to the ceasefire. The future of the plan is also threatened by debates over an independent Palestinian technocratic committee to manage civilian affairs in Gaza and the establishment of an international stability force. Disagreements between Egypt and Israel regarding the proposed names for the technocratic committee and a lack of clear commitment from nations to participate in the stability force further complicate matters.
Diplomatic Efforts and International Involvement
A meeting of Arab-Islamic foreign ministers, who had previously met with Donald Trump in New York in September, is scheduled in Istanbul. The focus of this meeting, according to Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, will be the transition to the second phase of the American plan and the formation of the stability force. Turkey has expressed willingness to contribute to the force, but Israel has rejected the deployment of Turkish forces in Gaza, citing the decline in Turkish-Israeli relations over the past two years, and accusing Ankara of siding with Hamas.
Israel, however, is open to Azerbaijan’s participation in the stability force, given their strategic relationship, with Baku supplying oil to Israel while Israel provides weapons to Azerbaijan. Furthermore, Israel welcomes a potential contribution from Indonesia, despite the absence of diplomatic relations. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has been in contact with Israelis for years and was planning a secret visit to Israel on October 13th, which was canceled at the last minute after Israeli media revealed the plan.
The Path Forward and Challenges
The efforts by Washington and the countries that signed the war cessation document to expedite the establishment of the stability force are critical for reinforcing the ceasefire and implementing the American plan, including reconstruction. However, the United States’ support for Israel’s justifications for violating the ceasefire is a significant concern. When Trump and his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, grant Israel the right to respond, as they did on October 28th, by killing 100 Palestinians in response to the death of one Israeli soldier and by closing the crossings to aid, the American plan is jeopardized. The ceasefire is not a ceasefire if it is only observed by one side.
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