Trump’s Nuclear Gamble: A World on Edge?
World leaders breathed a collective sigh of relief following a diplomatic détente between the United States and China, hoping for stability in a turbulent global economy. However, those hopes were quickly overshadowed by a startling announcement from former President Donald Trump, raising fears that the world may be entering a perilous new era of nuclear arms proliferation.
A Return to Nuclear Testing?
Moments before a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump declared that the United States would immediately resume nuclear weapons testing after a hiatus of over three decades. On Truth Social, he stated his directive to the Department of War (sic) to begin testing our nuclear weapons on an equal basis, citing programs by other nations. He offered no further details, yet the implications of his words were chilling. He also made the inaccurate claim that the U.S. has more nuclear weapons than any other country, while Russia is believed to have a larger stockpile. (Source: Annahar)
This dramatic shift in nuclear policy, once a relic of the Cold War, seems to be gaining renewed prominence. Trump’s declaration followed escalating nuclear threats from Russia during its war in Ukraine and the recent announcement of tests on a nuclear-powered cruise missile called Burevestnik. His message appeared to be a strategic move, perhaps an attempt to exert pressure as he prepared to meet with the leader of the world’s second-largest economy, which also boasts the third-largest nuclear arsenal.
A Dangerous New Era?
The Kremlin’s boasts of nuclear strength may have finally struck a chord in the White House. While Trump indicated that China did not prompt his decision, he implied it was related to other actors. Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently showcased new weapons of mass destruction set to join Russia’s already formidable nuclear arsenal. (Source: Annahar)
The timing of these Russian threats is particularly concerning. Perhaps Putin inadvertently spurred Trump to make the decision to resume nuclear weapons testing. As CNN observed in an analysis, this could serve as a lesson in the hazards of mixing irresponsible rhetoric with nuclear weapons in an increasingly unstable world. The very thing the Kremlin intended to use to bolster its arguments regarding Ukraine may have plunged the world into a new, dangerous, and unpredictable era.
Decades of US Policy Reversed
Trump’s remarks on nuclear testing reversed decades of American policy. The United States last conducted a nuclear test in 1992. However, the U.S. has decades of data from past tests, allowing it to use computer modeling and other techniques to determine whether a weapon will successfully detonate. The U.S. relies on its nuclear triad (land-based silos, aircraft-carried bombs, and submarine-launched missiles) for deterrence and routinely tests unarmed missiles. (Source: Annahar)
Any future U.S. tests would likely occur at the Nevada test sites, although these would require extensive preparation.
A Gift to Russia and China?
Since 1945, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been conducted globally. Most nations ceased nuclear testing in the 1990s. China’s last nuclear explosion was in 1996, while Moscow’s was in 1990, during the final days of the Soviet Union. North Korea’s most recent nuclear test was a rare exception, occurring in 2017. (Source: Annahar)
Russia and China do not conduct underground nuclear tests, though they do test missiles and other delivery systems. The United States regularly tests unarmed intercontinental ballistic missiles to ensure their reliability. Resuming nuclear testing may not be in the U.S.’s best interest. Arms control experts fear that it would escalate the situation, viewing it as a gift to Russia and China, who are developing new types of nuclear weapons and would benefit from the resumption of tests. Among U.S. allies are the United Kingdom, France, and Israel. India, Pakistan, and North Korea also possess growing nuclear stockpiles.
China: A New Nuclear Dilemma
China presents a particularly difficult nuclear dilemma for Trump. During the Cold War, the minimum deterrence represented by a few hundred nuclear weapons, compared to the thousands held by Russia and the United States, seemed too small to cause concern. However, China’s Xi Jinping has abandoned that policy, first secretly, then openly, as China built new missile silos visible to U.S. spy satellites. The Pentagon estimates that China will deploy around 1,000 weapons by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035. China appears uninterested in joining arms control talks until it reaches approximate parity. (Source: Annahar)
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